Thursday: Stock Markets

November 12th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:
Nikkei -622.10 -6.50%  8 899.14
Topix -57.61 -6.00% 909.30
FTSE -258.32  -5.70%  4,272.41
DAX-353.30  -6.84%  4,813.57
CAC    -230.86  -6.38%  3,387.25
Dow    -443.48    -4.85%    8,695.79
NASDAQ    -72.94    -4.34%    1,608.70
S&P    -47.89    -5.03%    904.88
S&P 500 -52.97 -5.27% 952.78
10yr Note    +0.1300    +0.035%    3.707%
NYMEX Crude Oil    -4.53    -6.94%    60.77
Gold    -10.20    -1.37%    732.20

Japanese major indices finished Thursday’s trading session by the first decrease for the last three sessions. This happened against the background of expectations as for the employment decrease in the USA, which overshadowed positive expectations due to the victory of democrats.
The stocks of the Sony Corp, the quarter of sales of which falls on the USA and Canon Inc fell during today’s session more than 11%. Apart from this, there fell the price of the Nippon Steel Corp’s stocks (-6.8%) – the world second largest steel company – after its most significant competitor ArcelorMittal has increased the volume of production reduction due to the retardation of the global demand. The reduction of oil prices negatively influenced the stocks of the oil companies. Thus, the stocks of Inpex – Japanese largest developer of oil and gas deposits – fell 11%, while the stocks of the Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. lost 6.3%. The stocks of the Orix – the largest non-banking financial establishment – drastically fell 14%. Yesterday the Company announced about the reduction of the yearly profit forecast by 40% in connection with the decrease of profitability of securities operations.

The comments of the President of the ECB Triche that the financial crisis may cause drastic and long economic decrease caused the reduction of the major European indices on Thursday. National indices decreased on all 18 West European markets. After the decision of the Bank of England about reduction by 150 basic points of rate the major indices partially recovered. But the decision of the ECB concerning the reduction of the rate by 50 basic points the markets treated as insufficient and went on decreasing. The stocks of the Adidas AG fell 9.6% after the producer of sports goods has announced about quarterly profit which appeared to be worse than the forecasts. Because of the weak data of quarterly profit there reduced the stocks of the European second largest insurance company Axa SA (-9.2%). The profit of 969 West European companies which have announced about their quarterly financial results since October 7th appeared to be on average 6.7% lower than the analogous period of the last year. The stocks of the Shell – European largest power-generating company – fell 7.4%. Meanwhile, Total SA’s stocks fell 6.4%. The stocks of the oil companies suffered losses because of the oil prices reduction. The decrease of copper prices caused the fall of mining companies’ stocks – the stocks of BHP Billiton and Anglo American Plc. decreased 15%.

Weak statistic data and the data of the companies’ sales caused the reduction of the USA’s major indices on Thursday.
Statistics released as for the labor market showed that a number of addresses for the unemployment benefit grew during the last week up to 481К (in comparison with 479К the week before).
But the main data concerning the labor market, namely the report about the number of the working places in the non-agricultural sectors of economy and unemployment rate will be released tomorrow.
Retail sales of the companies in October in the majority of cases were deplorable. October sales of the Gap year on year reduced 16%. Macy’s announced about the reduction of sales in October by 6.3%. Besides, the Company is expecting the reduction of sales in November as well. Apart from this, deplorable sales data were shown by the seller of women clothes AnnTaylor Stores (-19% year on year). Ann Taylor’s stocks fell 24%. It is worth mentioning that against the background of reduction of realization rates of many companies the sales of Wal-Mart grew by 2.4% in October. Wal-Mart has been expecting the demand growth in November at 1-3% level. Today Сisco Systems has reported on the first quarter of financial year 2009. Сisco reported the lowest rate of proceeds and profit growth for the last three years. In the forthcoming quarters the Company forecasts further decrease. Besides, in the nearest quarters the Company is going to freeze the program of new staff employment.
The net profit of media-corporation News Corp. in the first quarter of 2008-2009 financial year, which finished on September 30th 2008, reduced by 30% to $515 mln in comparison with $732 mln received during the analogous period the year before. The Company’s operating income during the accounting period decreased by 9% - $953 mln against $1.05 bln received during the analogous period the year before.
Morgan Stanley reduced the profit forecast for Goldman Sachs accounting for its decision by the constant uncertainty on the financial markets and bleak economic perspectives. After the Google has decided to refuse an agreement with Yahoo! Inc. as for the partnership on the advertizing market due to some difficulties with the antimonopoly establishments, Yahoo announced about the possibility of considering Microsoft’s offer.

Monday: currency market

November 11th, 2008

The following data were published:

00:30    Australia     Meeting report of Central Bank of Australia
09:30    Great Britain     The index of producers’ costs (entry), year/year   October    13.8%    18.0%    24.5%
09:30    Great Britain     Basic index of producers’ costs (launch price), year/year   October  4.9%     5.1%    5.4%
09:30      Great Britain Basic index of producers’ costs (launch price) October   -0.5%        -0.1%
09:30    Great Britain     Basic index of producers’ costs (launch price), year/year   October  6.8%    7.4%    8.5%
09:30    Great Britain Basic index of producers’ costs (launch price) October   -1.0%    -0.4%    -0.3%
09:30    Great Britain     The index of producers’ costs (entry) October    -5.6%    -2.6%    -1.2%
23:50    Japan    Balance of trade  September     ¥247.1B        -¥236B
23:50    Japan    Current balance   September   ¥970.5B        ¥903.2B
23:50    Japan    Monetary offer M2+CD   October   1.8%        2.2%

The decrease of the USA’s stock indices supported Japanese currency against its main competitors since investors activated the reduction of highly profitable assets which are financed in Japan.

The decrease of indices completely blocked their achievements at the beginning of the session as the analysts have forecast their first quarterly losses for the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and profit reduction of the Google Inc due to the financial crisis.

To fight the financial crisis Chinese government adopted the plan of economy stimulation the volume of inflows equal almost to five-year GDP. This is an answer to the collapse on the major export markets: in Japan, USA and Eurozone there has been observed the fall while Chinese economy is supposed to grow by 8.5 % according to the MWF data. Besides, the MWF forecasts that the decrease in the regions mentioned above will be the hardest since the II World War.

In the spotlight of the investors there is also the decision of the twenty economically developed countries about their readiness to take a number of measures immediately to support the growth of the world economy.

Euro may go on suffering losses against dollar after at the meeting in Sao Paulo the president of the ECB Triche has told that the reduction of inflation would enable central banks to reduce rates to revive economy. “There is a possibility of further reduction of the rates by the ECB due to the pessimistic perspectives for European economical system.” Tsutomu Soma, the currency dealer of the Okasan Securities Co., said. – “Long-term descending tendency of the business activity in the Eurozone will, obviously, preserve.”

EUR/USD has begun the trading session in the area of $1.2775. After that it remained in the terms of $1.2780- $1.2900. Having broken the lower bound in the afternoon, the couple fell to $1.2700 area.

GBP/USD has set the session maximum in $1.5885 area, after which it suddenly fell and set the session maximum in $1.5675 area and in the course of dollar consolidation fell to $1.5570 area.

USD/JPY after resistance testing in Y99.40 area it drastically reduced and being supported to Y97.50 finished the trading session in Y98.00 area.

The main Tuesday’s events will be the release of the present situation esteem by Japanese economic observers (05:00 GMT), the release of the trading balance of Great Britain at 09:30 GMT and the release of November German index of economic expectations by ZEW institution. At the end of the day there is expected the release of the indicator of consumers’ moods in Australia by Westpac (23:30 GMT).

Weekly review of the stock market

November 10th, 2008

Japanese major indices finished the week by the insignificant growth. According to the weekly results, Nikkei index consolidated 0.1%, weekly growth of the Topix made up 1.4%. It is worth mentioning that at the moment Nikkei has reduced 44% since the beginning of the year. On the last day of the week Japanese stock indices suffered losses: Nikkei went 316.14 points back or 3.6% to 8 583.00, Topix, being a wider index, reduced by 30.30 points or 3.3% to 879.00.
The dynamics of indices was negatively influenced by the reduction of income forecasts by the Japanese companies because of the global economy recession and growth of yen. Their income forecasts reduced Toyota Motor Corp. and Olympus Corp. According to the session results, the stocks of these companies fell 9.2% and 9.3%, respectively. Both of the companies reduced the forecast of the yearly income by 56%.
Yesterday’s fall of oil prices influenced negatively the stocks of the oil companies. The stocks of the Inpex fell 8.9%, the stocks of the Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. lost 10%.
The reduction of prices on the basic materials caused the stocks fall of the trading company Mitsui & Co.  by 8.8%.

Having consolidated on Friday, European major indices managed to compensate a part of their week losses. At the last session of the week there grew the national indices on all the 18 West European markets but for Luxemburg. British FTSE gained 2.2%, German DAX grew 2.6%, French CAC raised by 2.4%. The indices were supported by the growth of the stocks of oil and mining companies, which consolidated due to the growth of prices on oil and gold. The stocks of the BP grew 4.5%, the stocks of the Tullow Oil consolidated by 5.1%, the Shell’s stocks rose by 2.3%. Among the stocks of the mining companies the maximum growth was shown by the largest gamblers - BHP Billiton Ltd +4,8%,  Rio Tinto Group 4.5%. Besides, it is necessary to point out the stocks growth of the European third largest airlines British Airways Plc. by 12% after the company has announced about the growth of the profit forecast. The stocks of the world largest re-insurer Munich Re skyrocketed 6.9%. The company announced about its plans to keep on paying off its stocks and raising the amount of dividends by 10% by 2010.

USA’s major indices finished the week by the reduction by more than 4% showing maximum two-year fall for the last 20 years.
Despite the weak economic data released on Friday, major indices managed to finish the week on a positively since the investors have used the fall of the markets for the last two days to buy relatively cheap stocks.
According to the statistics released, in October the number of working places in the non-agricultural sector reduced by 240К compared with the rate reconsidered in September at the level of -289К and expectations at the level of -200К. Thus, the payrolls factor has been reducing the tenth month running this year. The unemployment level grew up to 6.5%.

Ford Motor (+$0.04) announced about $3 bln operating losses and plans on reduction of expenses and staff in order to support financial situation.
According to the third quarter results, losses of the GM (-$0.44) made up $2.5 bln or $4.45 per stock.
Quarterly financial result of the Qualcomm (+$2.61) turned out better than the forecasts but the expectations for the following quarters are not that optimistic. The quarterly profit of Walt Disney (+$0.55) and Sprint appeared to be worse than the forecasts.
It became known that the Microsoft (+$0.62) was not going to make a suggestion about merging the Yahoo! (-$1.76).
The stocks of the Exxon Mobil (+$4.39) showed the best result during the Friday’s session due to the growth of oil prices which finished the session in the area of $61.0 per barrel.

Tuesday: stock markets

November 7th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:
Nikkei -272.13 -3.00%  8,809.30
Topix -27.29 3.00%  889.36
FTSE    -157.23    -3.57%    4,246.69
DAX    -263.95    -5.25%    4,761.58
CAC    -169.34  -4.83%  3,336.41
Dow    -176.58    -1.99%    8,693.96
NASDAQ    -35.84    -2.22%    1,580.90
S&P    -20.26    -2.20%    898.95
10yr Note    -0.0500    -0.013%    3.755%
NYMEX Crude Oil    -3.08    -4.94%    59.33
Gold    -13.70    -1.84%    732.80

On Tuesday Japanese major indices went back against the apprehensions that the retardation of the global demand and growth of the national currency will be the cause of the reduction of profit forecasts. The stocks of the watches producers Citizen Holdings Co. and Seiko Holdings Corp. fell by more than 9% after the citizen has reduced the forecast of the yearly profit by 32%. Because of the forecast reduction there also decreased the stocks price of the digital cameras producer Canon and automaker Toyota by 8.4% and 4.9%, respectively. Last week both of the companies reduced their profit forecasts.
According to Shinko Research Institute Co.’s data more than a half out of 922 companies which released their quarterly results data, reduced the profit forecast for the forthcoming quarters.
Against the background of the total reduction there consolidated by 11% the stocks of the farming machines   Iseki & Co., thus expanding yesterday’s growth after the Company has announced about the profit according to the quarterly results against the forecasts of losses expectations.

In the light of reduction of prices on oil and metals as well as the worsening of the perspectives as for the worsening of companies’ profit against the background of the financial crisis European major indices finished Tuesday’s trading session by the first reduction for the last three days. The main national indices fell on all 18 West European markets.
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA’s stocks fell by 17% after the second largest bank of Italy as far as the assets are concerned has announced about reconsidering the dividends due to the 54% profit reduction. According to the Bloomberg’s estimates, average profit reduction of 1 246 companies which released their quarterly financial results since October 7th has made up 11% against the expected 4.5%.
The stocks of the Austrian bank Erste Bank Group AG fell by 9.5% after the Bank has announced about its plans to attract additional capital in the amount of $2.7 bln. The reduction of copper cost on the commodity exchanges caused concern about the reduction of demand on the metals, which in its turn negatively influenced the stocks of the mining companies. The stocks price of BHP and Rio Tinto fell by 9.3% and 8.9%, respectively. The stocks of the companies of the power-generating sector decreased as well: BG Group (-9.4%), Total SA (-5.2%).

Major indices on Wall Street finished Tuesday’s session by a fall. Concerns about global economy retardation, because of which the profit of corporations decreases, overshadowed optimistic announcements about the plans of a number of financial establishments to take measures to prevent foreclosure.
Mortgage companies Fannie Mae (-0.03) and Freddie Mac (-$0.04) with the help of public officers worked out the plan to help mortgage borrowers who are in danger of real estate attachment because of the inability to pay out the credit. This measure will concern hundreds thousands of families.
Analogous measures have been already taken and put into practice by the American leading banks - Citigroup, JPMorgan, Bank of America, etc. The main term will be the reduction of mortgage pay-outs to 38% of the customer’s income. To achieve this, the credit rates will be reduced and their terms prolonged. The measures taken by the Citigroup (-$0.36) include the terms change of crediting for the group out of 500 000 house owners.
The FRS satisfied the application of the American Express (-$1.56) – the world leader on the market of plastic credit cards – to be transformed into a banking holding. The decision, which the FRS explains by extraordinary circumstances, connected with the world economic crisis, will enable American Express to accept deposits and low-per cent federal credits. Before this the Company has announced about its intention to reduce 10% of its staff (about 7.000 working places) due to the crisis which spread from the mortgage market to the market of plastic cards.
Goldman Sachs reduced the profit forecast for the Google (-$7.49) in connection with the negative expectations of the future perspectives.
Auto-makers General Motors (-$0.44) and Ford (-$0.13) went on suffering losses due to the apprehensions of the investors as for the ability of the companies to cope with the financial problems without government’s support.
The consolidation of dollar caused further reduction of oil prices. December futures WTI Nymex fnished the trading session by the decrease by 4.94% to the level of $59.33 per barrel.
Bonds market was closed because of the celebration of the Veterans’ Day.

Wednesday:stock markets

November 6th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:

Nikkei    +406.64    +4.46%    9,521.24
Topix +56.21 +6.20% 966.91
FTSE    -108.77    -2.34%    4,530.73
DAX    -111.17    -2.11%    5,166.87
CAC    -72.98    -1.98%    3,618.11
DOW -486.01 -5.05% 9,139.27
NASDAQ -98.48 -5.53% 1,681.64
S&P 500 -52.97 -5.27% 952.78
10yr Note    -0.7100    -0.189%    3.694%
NYMEX Crude Oil    -4.93    -6.99%    65.60
Gold    -14.90    -1.97%    742.40

expectations that Barak Obama elected US President would take additional measures to stimulate economic growth.
The recovery of prices on the raw materials markets supported the stocks of the raw materials companies.
The stocks of the Honda Motor Co. skyrocketed 13% due to the optimism in relation to the fact that the US law-makers might take new measures to support economy.
The stocks of the Japanese largest oil companies Inpex Holdings Inc. and Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. gained more than 12% in the course of the oil prices consolidation at the highest rate for the last 6 weeks.
The stocks of the Mizuho Financial Group Inc. – Japanese second largest bank – skyrocketed 16% after the fall of the credit resources prices has become one more proof of the stabilization of the situation.
Unexpectedly strong quarterly report of the Sumitomo Heavy Industries Ltd. was the reason for the record growth of the company’s stocks for the last 22 years.

European stock indices suffered losses for the first time for the last seven days. The disappointing quarterly results became the main cause of the investors’ pessimism.
The stocks of the ArcelorMittal collapsed 15% after the company’s announcement that the planned volume reduction would be doubled. Besides, the world largest steel producer will pay out $1.6 bn as compensation to its employees in accordance with the 4-year labor contract recently signed by the trade union. The company also reported 29% growth of the profit to $3.9 bn, the sales growing 38% to $35.2 bn. BNP Paribas SA lost 1.5% of its stocks’ cost after the quarterly profit of the French bank turned out to be weaker than it has been expected judging by the forecasts. The stocks of the Scandinavian largest brewing company Carlsberg A/S fell 5.3% after the publication of the careful forecast of the financial results. Carlsberg A/S reduced the forecast of the operating profit according to the current financial year results, remarking the weakening of the demand in Great Britain and Baltic countries as well as the general weakening of the consumers’ activity. The quarterly results of Nokia Oyj and BASF SE fell short of expectations as well. It should be pointed out that according to the Bloomberg’s data, the quarterly profit of 924 West European companies, presenting their reports since October 7th on average reduced 4.9% against of the forecast fall by 3.6%.

Major indices on Wall Street finished the day with serious losses after the release of the weak economic data.
ISM Services index characterizing the situation in the services sector of the American economy reduced in October to 44.4, which turned out to be 2.6 percentage points worse than the forecasts and 5.8 percentage points weaker than September rate - 50.2. The indicator has fallen to the minimum level since 1997 and is bellow 50 level, which testifies to the negative dynamics in the sector on which there falls almost 90% of the American economy. A bit earlier there have been published the data of the ADP Employer Services, according to which last month there were reduced 157.000 working places. This has become the maximum rate for almost 6 years. This fact as well as the fall of the employment component of the ISM index causes sound apprehensions that Friday’s results of the labor market will show the significant reduction of employment. At the moment the experts forecast the reduction of the rate in October by 200.000 and unemployment growth to the five-year maximum of 6.3%. Nevertheless, one should not ignore the possibility of the release of even weaker data. In this connection the stock indices have been under pressure during the whole day, all the ten main economic sectors closed on the negative territory.
AMBAC Inc. reported the growth of quarterly losses to $2.43 bn in comparison with $360.6 mln last year

due to the losses connected with the credit derivatives, assets prices fall secured by the mortgage derivatives.
MBIA Inc., one of the leaders of the securities insurance, announced about the losses according to the quarterly results in the amount of $806.5 mln against $36.6 mln losses the year before. Financial company Gmac Llc reported the growth of quarterly losses to $2.52 bln due to the problems of the mortgage division. Last year GMAC lost $1.6 bln.
Delta Air Lines Inc Del announced about the terms change of bonus programs SkyMiles and WorldPerks in connection with the growth of fuel prices.
By the end of the trading session the indices have renewed session minimums in the course of activization of sales in the influential finance sector. Retail REITs fell 8% after the negative results of the General Growth Properties. Investment banks and brokers’ companies lost 5.1%. Meanwhile, the bond insurers MBIA and Ambac got a crushing blow after the release of extremely weak reports.
Among the components of S&P 500 the stocks of 472 companies suffered losses. The main outsiders became Exxon Mobil and AT&T. Medco Health Solutions and Chesapeake Energy remained the leaders.

Tuesday: currency market

November 5th, 2008

The following data were published:
03:30    Australia    The announcement of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision about the rate 5.25%
06:45    Switzerland    Index of the consumers’ prices   October    0.5%
06:45    Switzerland    Index of the consumers’ prices   October    2.6%
10:00    Е15    Index of the producers’ prices September    -0.2%
10:00    Е15   Index of the producers’ prices, year/year   September    7.9%
15:00    USA    Manufacturing orders     September    -2.5%
Dollar has suffered the most serious losses against euro since the introduction of the common currency in 1999, and yen seriously reduced in reference to the main currencies. Rally on the world stock markets combined with the fall of the interest rates on the capital markets reduced the attraction of the American and Japanese currencies as a shelter for capitals and provoked the activization of the profit fixation.
Yesterday dollar one-month interest rate Libor reduced in London to the minimal level for the last four months, which testifies to the unfreezing of the activity on the credit markets.
On the USA’s stock market Standard & Poor’s 500 index has overcome the 1.000 mark since October 14th adding 3.5% since morning. MSCI World Index researching the dynamics of the stock market in 23 developed countries gained today 1.2%, the growth of the index taking place for 6 days running.
According to the British Bankers’ Association the Libor rate which is the main indicator of the credit resources on the interbanking market has been reducing 17 days running and reached today 2.18% - minimal level since November 2004.
Thus, the markets react to the actions of the central banks all over the world which include both radical reductions of the rates and multi-milliard inflows into the financial systems to increase their liquidity and unfreeze the activity on the credit markets.
EUR/USD according to the session results dollar lost 300 points against euro. Having opened Tuesday trading session in $1.2640 area, the pair finished the day at $1.2980.
GBP/USD having set maximums above $1.6110 mark, the pair failed to preserve its achievements and finished the trading in $1.5950 area.
USD/JPY according to the session results yen went back against dollar to Y99.70 level from the opening area of Y99.10.
Today at 08:55 GMT and 09:00 GMT there will be released PMI indices in the services sector of Germany and Eurozone in whole. At 09:30 GMT there will be published a number of data of the industrial production in September in Great Britain as well as PMI index in the services sector. At 10:00 GMT it is worthy of paying attention to the data of the retail sales in Eurozone in September.
In the afternoon at 12:00 GMT there will be released the data of the number of applications for the getting of mortgage credit in the USA on October 31st. At 13:15 GMT there will be released October report of the ADP about the number of new working places in the private sector of the American economy. At 15:00 GMT there will be released September ISM Non-Manufacturing index and traditional data about the oil reserves in the USA are expected at 15:35 GMT.

Monday: stock market

November 4th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:

FTSE    +65.94    +1.51%    4,443.28
DAX    +38.87    +0.78%    5,026.84
CAC    +40.90    +1.17%    3,527.97
DOW -3.75 -0.04% 9,321.26
NASDAQ +5.38 +0.31% 1,726.33
S&P 500 -2.42 -0.25% 966.33
10yr Note    -0.6600    -0.166%    3.904%
NYMEX Crude Oil    -3.90    -5.75%    63.91
Gold    +8.60    +1.20%    726.80

On Monday Japanese stock market was closed due to the national holiday National Culture Day.

European stock indices went on consolidating their positions. The relief of tension on the credit markets distracted the investors’ attention for some time from the fact that world economy has been entering the period of recession. The stocks of the largest Dutch financial company ING Groep NV grew 5.2% and these of the Swiss reinsurance company Swiss Reinsurance Co. skyrocketed 6.3% after the interest rate on the interbanking crediting market (Libor) has reduced to the minimum level since the bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The stocks of the HBOS Plc. grew 6.1% after the announcement that the mortgage bank might get the competitors’ suggestion after the Lloyds TSB Group Plc’s have shown they are interested in the purchase of the company.
The optimism in relation to the reduction of tension on the credit markets was not influenced by the forecast of the European commission according to which the growth rate in the region will drastically reduce next year. Neither was it influenced by the fall of the activity indicator in the USA’s business sector to the minimum level since 1982 nor by the report, testifying the reduction of the product volume in Great Britain.
Stoxx 600 index has grown 12% for the last week, which has become the most significant result since September 2001 after a number of central banks all over the world have reduced their rates to activate economic growth.

On Wall Street major indices finished the day without any definite tendency. Investors preferred not to demonstrate any activity on the eve of the presidential election in the USA.
Among the positive moments which influenced the market’s moods one should point out the preservation of the tendency of reduction of the dollar interest rate Libor. This fact testifies to the further improvement of conditions on the credit market. On the other hand, ISM Manufacturing index in October reduced to 38.9 against 43.5, this fact testifying to the deepening of the negative tendencies in the manufacturing sector of the world’s largest economy.
Among the corporate news it is worth mentioning of the decision of the technicians’ trading union of the Boeing to approve of the new terms of the labor contract. Earlier the Boeing has been on the list of the stocks recommended for sale by the Goldman Sachs. Wal-Mart’s rating was raised by the analysts of JPMorgan to “Overweight” from “Neutral”.
Citigroup, Inc. announced that the losses of the third quarter have reached $1.4 bn. Circuit City Stores, Inc. announced about the closure of 155 shops (about 20%)on the territory of the USA due to the decrease of liquidity and general reduction of economy.
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company’s stocks grew 10.1% after their quarterly report has turned out to be stronger than the forecasts. The profit made up $31 m in comparison with $668 m the year before, and sales grew to $5.17 bln in comparison with $5.06 bln.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. expanded the program the goal of which is to help 400.000 bank customers to avoid the foreclosure of the mortgage bonds and is going to consider every case individually.
Due to the sales activization in the consumers’ sector by the end of the session Dow and S&P have renewed their session minimums but managed to restore and finished the day a bit lower nil marks.
Telecommunication sector preserved the leading position and power-generating sector became the main outsider which is connected with the fall of oil prices 5.75%, to 63.91 per barrel.
The segment of retail trading suffered serious losses due to the sales of the stocks of the Home Depot and Lowe’s. Following the FRS’s announcement the banks are going toughening the credit terms.
Financial sector has lost 0.7% since morning.
After the closing bell of the regular session there will be released the quarterly results of MasterCard (MA). As the analysts of Thomson Reuters are expecting the profit of the company must have grown 25% to $2.25 per stock.

Monthly review of the currency market

November 3rd, 2008

According to the monthly results, dollar and yen have consolidated their positions against major currencies and finish October by a record growth against euro after the signs of the global economy recession have made the investors to look for shelter for their capitals.
Despite today’s reduction, which followed after the decision of the Bank of Japan to reduce the main rate by 0.2 basic points to 0.3%, in October yen grew 17% against euro. This has become a record since introduction of the common currency in 1999. The growth of dollar against euro made up record 10.6%. Nevertheless, in October the American currency has gone 7.8%cheaper against yen – the most significant fall since the collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP in 1998.
“At the moment there are significant repatriation flows which are impossible to resist”, Steven Butler, the representative of Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto, says.
According to the UBS’s data, in September American investors reduced the share of their foreign assets to 23.5% in comparison with 26% the year before. Since it is already well-known that the rate s of the world economy growth will be very weak next year, it is natural to suppose that the repatriation of the capitals will preserve and, consequently, the tendency towards consolidation of the American and Japanese currencies will preserve as well.
The FRS, as it has been expected, reduced the rate by 50% basic points to 1.00%. The central bank pointed out “significant retardation of the economic activity”. Besides, according to the FRS, there is expected the reduction of inflation to the “levels compatible with the price stability”.
In their comments after the announcement of the decision the FOMC was reserved: “There is still some risk of the economic retardation. The committee will thoroughly control economic and financial events and act in the direction of the support of the healthy economic growth and price stability”. The votes as for the decision about the interest rate distributed 10:0.
Dollar consolidated its positions against the major currencies despite the release of one more portion of the weak economic data. In October consumers’ moods reached the historic minimum and housing prices have been falling down for 25 months running.
The American currency is still supported by the apprehensions that the things in Europe are not that great as well as by the expectations of the large-scale reductions of the interest rates in the region.
Euro was also under pressure of the deplorable economic data, namely the decrease of the index of the moods in the business circles in Germany to 90.2 level in October (minimal for the last five years).
During his speech on Monday the head of the ECB Jean-Claude Triche made it evident that at the nearest meeting planned on November 6th, the Central Bank would continue reduction of the interest rates to revive the economic growth in the region. The data released on Friday testify to the weakening of the inflation pressure in the Eurozone in October to 3.2% instead of 3.6% in the month before. In this connection there grew speculations that next week the ECB might once again resort to the reduction of the interest rate in order to revive the economic growth and unfreeze the credit markets from current 3.75% to 3.25%.
The fall of the pound, which only on Friday lost 1.9% against dollar, having reduced to $1.6000 mark activated after the release of the announcement that the consumers’ moods in Great Britain in October have reached the minimal level since, at least, 1974. During the month the pound has lost 9.2% against the dollar, which is the most significant rate since the collapse of the British currency in 1992.
The main cause of the weakening of the pound is the expectations of the reduction by the Bank of England next week of the main interest rate by, at least, 50 basic points to 4.00%, the whole string of the analysts of the largest banks, namely частности JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup,   BNP Paribas, HSBC and Goldman Sachs, being sure that on November 6th the interest rate will be aggressively reduced by 100 basic points to 3.50%.

Thursday: stock markets

October 31st, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:

Nikkei    +817.86    +9.96%    9,029.76
Topix +69.05 +8.30% 899.37
FTSE    +49.11    +1.16%  4,291.65
DAX    +60.61    +1.26%    4,869.30
CAC    +5.25    +0.15%    3,407.82
DOW +189.89 +2.11% 9,180.85
NASDAQ +41.31 +2.49% 1,698.52
S&P 500 +23.94 +2.57% 954.03
10yr Note    +0.6500    +0.168%    3.939%
NYMEX Crude Oil    -1.54    -2.28%    65.96
Gold    -15.50    -2.06%    738.50

On Thursday the stocks on the Japanese market grew, Nikkei 225 Stock Average skyrocketing 10%. For the last three trading days the index has shown the most impressive result for the last 38 years. The growth of prices on the raw materials and the weakening of the yen rate positively influenced the profit perspectives of the representatives of the resources and export-oriented sectors. The stocks of the trading companies Mitsubishi Corp. and Mitsui & Co., half of the profit of which is generated by the sales of the raw materials, skyrocketed 12%. Mazda Motor Corp. exporting 80% of its products grew 25%, which became the maximum result for, at least, the last ten years. The stocks of the mobile operator Softbank Corp. grew 13% after the announcement of the Company that according to the yearly results it will get revenue. The stocks of the Inpex Corp., Japanese largest oil company, grew 10%, and the stocks of its main competitor - Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. - gained 7.5%. The cost of oil and its delivery in December went 4.3% more expensive to $70.38 per barrel.

On Thursday European indices grew after the whole string of the central banks have reduced their interest rates and the FRS provided South Korea, Singapore, Brazil and Mexico with the credit lines in the amount of  $120 billion in order to unfreeze the credit market in the emerging countries.
The stocks of the BHP Billiton Ltd. and Xstrata grew at least 5% in the course of the revival of the growth of prices on the raw materials as well as due to the expectations that the tension relief on the credit markets will positively influence the perspectives of the world economy.
The stocks of the Deutsche Bank AG skyrocketed 18%, those of the Alcatel-Lucent SA grew 20% after the Companies have released better than it has been expected quarterly results.

Major indices on Wall Street finished the day by the significant growth. The joint efforts made by the central banks to increase the liquidity on the credit and capital markets supporting the major stock indices. After the day before the FOMC has reduced its interest rate by 50 basic points to 1.00%, the central banks of some Asian countries reduced their interest rates as well. Besides, the FRS opened the dollar swaps with a number of central banks, namely those of Brazil, Mexico and South Korea. The less, than it has been expected, decrease of the GDP growth of the USA last quarter and the record profit of the oil giant Exxon also positively influenced the moods of the investors. The quarterly profit of the Exxon Mobil Corp. has turned out to be the record one for the history of the corporative America and grew 57% year/year to $14.83 billion.
Avon Products Inc. announced about the 13% growth of sales to $2.6 billion and the doubling of the net profit to $223 billion. The result, nevertheless, turned out to be much lower than it has been expected. The profit of the Allied Waste Industries Inc. grew four times in relation to the previous period and made up $112.5 million.
Delta Air Lines Inc Del. bought Northwest Airlines for $2.8 billion. As the result there was founded the largest airline company in the world.
Visa Inc. managed to reduce the quarterly losses to $356 million instead of $1.66 billion last year. In accordance with the report released today, the preliminary esteem of the GDP growth of the USA last quarter made up -0.3% instead of 2.8% growth of the previous period. The economists have expected 0.5% reduction of the rate.
Wall Street was also supported by the growth on the world stock markets. Thus, South Korean index KOSPI skyrocketed today record 12%. The indices a bit reduced after the announcement of the president of San-Francisco FRB Jeanette Ellen that the latest economic data cause very serious concerns and in the fourth quarter the growth is very likely to decrease.

Wednesday: stock markets

October 30th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock marke:

Nikkei +589.98 +7.7% 8,211.90
Topix +46.29 +5.9% 830.32
FTSE    +316.16    +8.05%    4,242.54
DAX    -14.76    -0.31%    4,808.69
CAC +287.65  +9.23%     3,402.57
Dow    -74.16    -0.82%    8,990.96
NASDAQ    +7.74    +0.47%    1,657.21
S&P    -10.42    -1.11%    930.09
10yr Note    +0.5400    +0.141%    3.874%
NYMEX Crude Oil    +4.77    +7.60%    67.50
Gold    +13.50    +1.82%    754.00

On Wednesday Japanese major indices finished the session by the growth the second day running thus reacting to the possible reduction of the rate by the National Bank of the country. This became the result of the record for the last three decades fall of yen against dollar, thus raising the perspectives of the export-oriented economy of the country in general and the electronics producers, in particular.
The stocks of the Honda Motor Co., for which the growth of yen caused the significant reduction of the quarterly revenue, grew 18% showing the maximum daily growth for the last 34 years. The stocks of its largest competitor Toyota Motor Corp., the cost of which is now lower than that of the basic capital, grew 10%. The stocks of the largest producer of the consumers’ electronics Panasonic Corp. grew 4.6%. The quarterly revenue of the company turned out to be better than the analysts’ forecasts. The stocks of the Promise Co., the company providing services in the sphere of the consumers’ crediting, grew at the maximum rate for the last 8 years. The Promise raised the forecast of the quarterly revenue.

European major indices (apart from the German Dax) also finished by the growth the second session running. The reduction of the cost of the interbanking loans supported the stocks of the financial establishments while the higher commodity prices supported the stocks of the metal producers and oil companies.
Today the national indices grew on all the 18 West European markets apart from Germany.
The stocks of the British bank Royal Bank of Scotland grew 13%. The stocks of the insurance companies Allianz and Аха skyrocketed 26% and 18%, correspondingly. The three-month dollar rate Libor fell 0.05% to the 3.42% level. According to the data of the British Banking Association, the Libor rate has been reducing the thirteenth day running.
The stocks of the world largest mining companies Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. grew 19% and 14%, correspondingly. The prices on the copper skyrocketed today 14% to the level of $4.670 per ton.
Against the background of the oil prices growth the Royal Dutch Shell Plc.’s stocks increased 12%. The Daimler AG’s stocks grew 21% after the Мerrill Lynch has raised their rating to “buy” from “neutral”.
German auto-giant Volkswagen for less than a day was the world capitalization leader. On Wednesday its stocks collapsed 45%. The cause of this became the announcement of the Porsche about the increase of its share in the company.
Deutsche Boerse, the operator of the main markets of the FRG, announced that the share of the Volkswagen’s stocks in the DAX index will be reduced to 10% since according to the results of the heavy growth during the day the stocks made up 27% of the DAX index’s weight. The cost of the Porsche’s stocks skyrocketed 37%.

Major indices on Wall Street finished Wednesday’s session in a mixed way. Alongside the growth of the Nasdaq index, the indices Dow and S&P suffered losses.
Seven out of ten major economic sectors finished the session below the zero mark. At the beginning of the session the investors were optimistic about the release of unexpectedly strong report of the durable goods (+0.8% instead of -1.1% forecast). Corporative reports also inspire certain optimism: the Kellogg presented better quarterly results than it has been expected and released positive forecast for 2008 financial year. The profit of the Comcast, Kraft and Newmont Mining exceeded the experts’ forecasts. The results of the Corning, Garmin and Moody’s turned out to be better than those of the previous quarter. Nevertheless, the companies released careful forecasts. Office Depot and Qwest reported the reduction of the financial results. The component Dow Procter & Gamble presented stronger than those forecast quarterly results: the sales and the profit of the company both increased. Nevertheless, the P&G warned that according to the results of the whole year the profit might come short of the expectations. As a result the price of the company’s stocks fell 3%.
General Motors announced about the 19% reduction of sales in the third quarter on the market of North America.
Kraft Foods announced about two-times growth of profit due to $2.6 billion got from the sale of its branch the Post.
The prices on the Treasury books have been reducing. The profitability of the ten-year bonds grew to 3.81% instead of 3.77% on Thursday evening. At today’s meeting the FRS, as it has been expected, reduced the rate by 50 basic points to the 1.00% level. In their declaration the members of the FOMC marked “the obvious retardation of the economic activity” and expectations of the inflation decrease “to the levels compatible with the price stability”.
“There is still risk of the economy retardation. The committee will thoroughly control economic and financial events, and act in the direction of the support of the healthy economic growth and price stability”.