Thursday: Currency Market

The following data were published:
04:30    Japan     Release of industrial products, year/year    September    0.2%
04:30    Japan     Release of industrial products September 1.1%
07:00    Germany     GDP, preliminary esteem, including season factors, year/year    3 quarter    0.8%
07:00      Germany     GDP, preliminary esteem 3 quarter    -0.5%
07:00    Germany     GDP, preliminary esteem, including season factors, year/year    3 quarter    1.3%
13:30    USA   A number of applications for unemployment benefit    week up to 08.11    516К
13:30    Canada     Trading balance, bln    September    4.5
13:30    USA    Import, bln    September    211.9
13:30    USA    Export, bln    September   155,4
13:30    USA   Trading balance, bln    September    -56.5
19:00    USA    Federal budget    October    -237.2
21:30    USA    Monetary offer  M2, bln        +0.2
The speculations about the possible interventions by the other central banks (namely, the Bank of Japan) following the Reserve Bank of Australia which yesterday made an intervention on the currency market in order to restrict further reduction of the national currency pressed the yen in the morning. Later the sales of yen activated against the background of the growth of the USA’s major stock indices. The growth of indices and expectations of the possible interventions raised the investors’ inclination to risk. As a result, there activated the increase of the highly profitable assets which are financed by the cheap Japanese credits.
According to the session results euro consolidated against euro. Despite the expectations of the reduction of the rate by the ECB, euro was supported against the American currency by the reduction of the yen against the common currency. On the other hand, dollar was pressed by the release of the data of the state budget of the USA the deficit of which grew more than four times in October in comparison with the analogous period of the previous year. And although the deficit growth has been expected in connection with the beginning of the realization of Paulson’s plan to stabilize the stock markets, the four-fold deficit increase made for yesterday’s dollar fall.  The dollar’s fall against pound was restricted by the expectations of the further rate reduction by the Bank of England. As a result, the pound only managed to compensate a part of yesterday’s losses against the dollar.
EUR/USD having begun trading in $1.4960 area, the rate has managed to set session minimums at the level of $1.2384 after which it consolidated above $1.2800 mark. The pair finished Thursday’s trading session at the level of $1.2769.
GBP/USD having begun the session in $1.4960 area, the rate has renewed the six-year minimums ($1.4556), the rate as a result of the dollar and yen reduction it managed to compensate the majority of its daily losses. The pair finished Thursday’s trading at the level of $1.4836.
USD/JPY according to the session results, yen lost more than 250 points. Having begun the session in the area of Y95.00, the pair finished the session at the level of Y97.69.
The main events of Friday will be presented by the data of inflation in Germany (07:00 GMT) and ЕС (10:00 GMT), import prices and retail sales in the USA (13:30 GMT).

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