Archive for November, 2008

Monday: currency market

Tuesday, November 18th, 2008

The following data were published:
00:01    Great Britain    Index of housing prices Rightmove, year/year    September    -7.1%
00:01    Great Britain    Index of housing prices Rightmove, month/month   October    -2.9%
00:30    Australia    Retail sales    3 quarter    0.1%
10:00    Е15    Balance of trade excluding season fluctuations, bln    September    5.6
10:00    Е15    Balance of trade including season fluctuations, bln    September    5.7
13:30    USA    Industry Index FRS New York    November    -25.4
14:15    USA Industrial production    October    1.3%
14:15    USA    Capacity utilization    October    76.4

Yen has suffered losses against dollar and euro in the course of the revival of the stock indices in the USA which caused the retardation of the rates of carry trades curtailing. The meeting of the heads of the “Great 20”, which took place at weekends in Washington, failed to catalyze the end of the current financial crisis and activation of the increase of the highly risky assets volumes by the investors. Concluding declaration of the summit makes one doubt about the real importance of the meeting: the document limits itself to the good resolves and noncommittal slogans.
The data about the industrial production whose volumes in October grew by 1.3% against 2.8% fall in September failed to support the dollar. The analysts have expected the reduction of the rate by 0.2%.
The pound has become the leader of growth against the dollar among the major currencies since the investors decided that the first fall of the GBP/USD for 6.5 years is unlikely to be very long.
Euro has been supported by the data release of the EU’s trading balance which, according to September’s results, had surplus in the amount of €5.7 bln against the deficit the month before.
EUR/USD having begun the session in the area of $1.2535, the pair managed to show session maximums at   $1.2740. After that it corrected itself to $1.2650, where it finished Monday trading session.
GBP/USD according to the session results, the pound consolidated more than 300 points against dollar. Having begun the session in the area of $1.4660, the pair managed to show confident growth and finished the trading in the area of $1.4975.
USD/JPY the pair traded rather unsteadily and in accordance with the session results, yen lost about 40 points against the dollar. The rate showed the session minimums in the area of Y95.90. After that the session maximum was set at Y97.56. Further the rate kept trading in terms of the levels achieved.
Significant interest today will be caused by the release of the index of the consumers’ prices in October in Great Britain at 09:30 GMT.
In the afternoon there will be released a string of data concerning the USA. At 13:30 GMT there will be released the index of the producers’ prices in October. At 14:00GMT the report of the USA Treasury about the international capital flows into American assets. At 17:00GMT there will be released November NAHB Housing Market Index. At 21:45 GMT New Zealand index of the producers’ prices will be released and at 23:50 GMT – release of Japanese activity index.

Weekly review of the stock market

Monday, November 17th, 2008

On Friday Asian stock indices managed to reduce the losses suffered during the week. The producers of the basic materials consolidated their positions in the course of the revival of prices on oil and metals – the investors used the opportunity to buy cheap stocks to the fullest extent.
One of the growth leaders became BHP Billiton Ltd. due to the revival of prices on oil, nickel and zinc.
Inpex Corp. gained 9.2% in price after the Company has won the contest to exploit Indonesian oil field. United Microelectronics Corp., one of the world’s largest microchips producers, grew 6.9% after the announcement of a possible purchase of the Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd. On Friday MSCI Asia Pacific Index grew 0.7% to 82.89, thus finishing the three-day’ fall by 8.8%. The growth leader became the power-generating sector. In the middle of the week stock indices revived the two-week minimums after the forecasts released of the largest representatives of the retail trading sector in the USA strengthened the investors’ confidence that the world’s largest economy has been suffering recession.

By the end of the week European stock indices have somehow consolidated their positions. Nevertheless, according to the weekly results, they reduced.
On Friday Stoxx 600 index grew by 0.8% to 205.75, thus finishing the week by 6.3% losses. The representatives of the oil, mining and insurance sectors became the leaders of the market revival.
The reduction of oil prices negatively influenced the power-generating sector, while the technological segment suffered losses after Nokia’s warning in reference to the reduction of mobile phones sales. The sales leaders, according to the weekly results, became the representatives of the banking sector and the sector of the basic materials after it has become known that German economy suffers the most significant recession for the last 12 years and the OECD released the forecast in accordance with which global economic recession is expected.

USA’s stock indices have been suffering losses the second week running after the record fall of the retail sales and a low demand for the mobile phones have caused the apprehensions as for the deepening of recession.
The stocks of the Sears Holdings Corp. and Office Depot Inc. collapsed more than 11% after the announcement about the fall of the retail sales by 2.8% last month. Only Friday the stocks of the Qualcomm Inc., the largest producer of the mobile phones chips and Motorola Inc. lost more than 3% after the warning by Nokia in reference to the mobile phones sales.
Standard & Poor’s 500m leveled the results of yesterday’s 7% rally and finishes the week with 4% losses. Since the beginning of the year S&P 500 has already lost about 40%. Certain support to the market was provided by the announcement of the Secretary of the US Treasury Henry Paulson that the government would be able to get the profit buying the portfolios of the banks as well as $700 bln would be enough to overcome the financial crisis.

Thursday: Currency Market

Friday, November 14th, 2008

The following data were published:
04:30    Japan     Release of industrial products, year/year    September    0.2%
04:30    Japan     Release of industrial products September 1.1%
07:00    Germany     GDP, preliminary esteem, including season factors, year/year    3 quarter    0.8%
07:00      Germany     GDP, preliminary esteem 3 quarter    -0.5%
07:00    Germany     GDP, preliminary esteem, including season factors, year/year    3 quarter    1.3%
13:30    USA   A number of applications for unemployment benefit    week up to 08.11    516К
13:30    Canada     Trading balance, bln    September    4.5
13:30    USA    Import, bln    September    211.9
13:30    USA    Export, bln    September   155,4
13:30    USA   Trading balance, bln    September    -56.5
19:00    USA    Federal budget    October    -237.2
21:30    USA    Monetary offer  M2, bln        +0.2
The speculations about the possible interventions by the other central banks (namely, the Bank of Japan) following the Reserve Bank of Australia which yesterday made an intervention on the currency market in order to restrict further reduction of the national currency pressed the yen in the morning. Later the sales of yen activated against the background of the growth of the USA’s major stock indices. The growth of indices and expectations of the possible interventions raised the investors’ inclination to risk. As a result, there activated the increase of the highly profitable assets which are financed by the cheap Japanese credits.
According to the session results euro consolidated against euro. Despite the expectations of the reduction of the rate by the ECB, euro was supported against the American currency by the reduction of the yen against the common currency. On the other hand, dollar was pressed by the release of the data of the state budget of the USA the deficit of which grew more than four times in October in comparison with the analogous period of the previous year. And although the deficit growth has been expected in connection with the beginning of the realization of Paulson’s plan to stabilize the stock markets, the four-fold deficit increase made for yesterday’s dollar fall.  The dollar’s fall against pound was restricted by the expectations of the further rate reduction by the Bank of England. As a result, the pound only managed to compensate a part of yesterday’s losses against the dollar.
EUR/USD having begun trading in $1.4960 area, the rate has managed to set session minimums at the level of $1.2384 after which it consolidated above $1.2800 mark. The pair finished Thursday’s trading session at the level of $1.2769.
GBP/USD having begun the session in $1.4960 area, the rate has renewed the six-year minimums ($1.4556), the rate as a result of the dollar and yen reduction it managed to compensate the majority of its daily losses. The pair finished Thursday’s trading at the level of $1.4836.
USD/JPY according to the session results, yen lost more than 250 points. Having begun the session in the area of Y95.00, the pair finished the session at the level of Y97.69.
The main events of Friday will be presented by the data of inflation in Germany (07:00 GMT) and ЕС (10:00 GMT), import prices and retail sales in the USA (13:30 GMT).

Wednesday: stock markets

Thursday, November 13th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:

Nikkei -113.79 -1.30% 8,695.51
Topix -14.13 -1.60% 875.23
FTSE    -76.99    -1.81%    4,169.70
DAX    -140.78    -2.96%    4,620.80
CAC    -102.45    -3.07%    3,233.96
Dow    -410.67    -4.72%    8,283.29
NASDAQ    -81.69    -5.17%    1,499.21
S&P    -46.59    -5.18%    852.36
10yr Note    -0.9000    -0.240%    3.665%
NYMEX Crude Oil    -3.23    -5.44%    56.10
Gold    -14.50    -1.98%    718.30
Japanese stock indices have suffered losses the second day running after the fall of oil prices to 20-month minimum and the reduction of prices on other basic materials became the evidence of deepening of the world economy recession. The stocks of the Inpex Corp. – Japanese largest electric company – fell by 5.4% after the reduction of the profit forecast due to the fall of oil prices. The stocks of the Mitsubishi Corp. – more than a half of whose profit is generated by the sales of basic materials – fell by 8.1% after the fall of prices on copper to the 3-year minimum. The stocks of Sumitomo Rubber Industries Ltd. Grew by 4.8% after the oil prices have fallen below $60 level, which positively influences the expenses of the Company. The stocks of the mobile operator Softbank Corp. skyrocketed by 16% after Chinese departments of the Alibaba.com Ltd. Company has announced about a sudden growth of the quarterly revenue.

The reduction of prices on raw materials triggered the stocks sales of the representatives of the extractive and oil industries.  Swiss Life Holding’s stocks collapsed by 20% after the Company has reconsidered (with reduction) its profit forecast. The stocks of the BHP Billiton Ltd. – the world largest mining company – fell by 6.9% because of the reduction of copper prices and BG Group Plc. lost 5.4% after the oil of the brent mark has reduced to $57 per barrel.
ArcelorMittal fell by 9.6%. Citigroup Inc. Recommended selling of the stocks of the world largest steel producer due to the Company’s debts and the fall of the world demand for steel.
Credit Suisse Group AG and Deutsche Bank AG became the sales leaders in the banking sector losing at least 7% after the Secretary of the US Treasury Henry Paulson has announced about the closing of the purchasing of the troubled assets secured by the mortgages.

The US largest retail net of home electronics Best Buy worsened the forecast of profit and income remarking the preserving weakness of the consumers’ activity on the eve of the holidays season. The company reduced its profit forecast per stock according to the results of financial year 2009 (ends in February) to $2.30-$2.90 in comparison with the previous mark $3.25-$3.40 and experts’ expectations $3.02. Last year the Best Buy’s profit made up $3.18 per stock. The Best Buy remarks that according to the yearly results the sales may reduce by 1% -8%. In the previous forecast there has been observed the rate growth by 2%-3%. Operator of the department stores net Macy’s announced about quarterly losses and the fall of sales by 7%. This week their data will present Wal-Mart (Thursday) and JC Penney (Friday). By the end of the session the Nasdaq has renewed session minimums while the Dow and S&P 500 approached their today’s worth rates.
The representatives of the financial and technological sectors were under serious pressure. In the financial sector one should specially stress the sales in the segment of industrial (-31.6%) and retail REIT (-10.1%) investment funds in real estate. Among the representatives of the technological sector the largest losses were suffered by the group of the entertainment software producers (-10.3%) and the segment of electronic branch of industry services (-6.2%).
Google became one of the sales leaders as a component of the Nasdaq. The stocks of the search engine have reached the third-year minimum. Several brokers’ companies reduced the Google’s profit forecasts at once due to the apprehensions that global financial crisis will negatively influence the profit of online advertisement sales.

Among not numerous leaders one should point out General Motors and Ford due to the rumors about the possible adoption of the law, according to which the automobile industry of the USA will get credits in the amount of $25 bln. By the end of the year the losses of Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 have already made up 38.8%, 44.3% and 43.1%, respectively. Dow, Nasdaq and  S&P 500 are by 40.7%, 70.3%, and 44.9% lower their historic maximums.

Thursday: Stock Markets

Wednesday, November 12th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:
Nikkei -622.10 -6.50%  8 899.14
Topix -57.61 -6.00% 909.30
FTSE -258.32  -5.70%  4,272.41
DAX-353.30  -6.84%  4,813.57
CAC    -230.86  -6.38%  3,387.25
Dow    -443.48    -4.85%    8,695.79
NASDAQ    -72.94    -4.34%    1,608.70
S&P    -47.89    -5.03%    904.88
S&P 500 -52.97 -5.27% 952.78
10yr Note    +0.1300    +0.035%    3.707%
NYMEX Crude Oil    -4.53    -6.94%    60.77
Gold    -10.20    -1.37%    732.20

Japanese major indices finished Thursday’s trading session by the first decrease for the last three sessions. This happened against the background of expectations as for the employment decrease in the USA, which overshadowed positive expectations due to the victory of democrats.
The stocks of the Sony Corp, the quarter of sales of which falls on the USA and Canon Inc fell during today’s session more than 11%. Apart from this, there fell the price of the Nippon Steel Corp’s stocks (-6.8%) – the world second largest steel company – after its most significant competitor ArcelorMittal has increased the volume of production reduction due to the retardation of the global demand. The reduction of oil prices negatively influenced the stocks of the oil companies. Thus, the stocks of Inpex – Japanese largest developer of oil and gas deposits – fell 11%, while the stocks of the Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. lost 6.3%. The stocks of the Orix – the largest non-banking financial establishment – drastically fell 14%. Yesterday the Company announced about the reduction of the yearly profit forecast by 40% in connection with the decrease of profitability of securities operations.

The comments of the President of the ECB Triche that the financial crisis may cause drastic and long economic decrease caused the reduction of the major European indices on Thursday. National indices decreased on all 18 West European markets. After the decision of the Bank of England about reduction by 150 basic points of rate the major indices partially recovered. But the decision of the ECB concerning the reduction of the rate by 50 basic points the markets treated as insufficient and went on decreasing. The stocks of the Adidas AG fell 9.6% after the producer of sports goods has announced about quarterly profit which appeared to be worse than the forecasts. Because of the weak data of quarterly profit there reduced the stocks of the European second largest insurance company Axa SA (-9.2%). The profit of 969 West European companies which have announced about their quarterly financial results since October 7th appeared to be on average 6.7% lower than the analogous period of the last year. The stocks of the Shell – European largest power-generating company – fell 7.4%. Meanwhile, Total SA’s stocks fell 6.4%. The stocks of the oil companies suffered losses because of the oil prices reduction. The decrease of copper prices caused the fall of mining companies’ stocks – the stocks of BHP Billiton and Anglo American Plc. decreased 15%.

Weak statistic data and the data of the companies’ sales caused the reduction of the USA’s major indices on Thursday.
Statistics released as for the labor market showed that a number of addresses for the unemployment benefit grew during the last week up to 481К (in comparison with 479К the week before).
But the main data concerning the labor market, namely the report about the number of the working places in the non-agricultural sectors of economy and unemployment rate will be released tomorrow.
Retail sales of the companies in October in the majority of cases were deplorable. October sales of the Gap year on year reduced 16%. Macy’s announced about the reduction of sales in October by 6.3%. Besides, the Company is expecting the reduction of sales in November as well. Apart from this, deplorable sales data were shown by the seller of women clothes AnnTaylor Stores (-19% year on year). Ann Taylor’s stocks fell 24%. It is worth mentioning that against the background of reduction of realization rates of many companies the sales of Wal-Mart grew by 2.4% in October. Wal-Mart has been expecting the demand growth in November at 1-3% level. Today Сisco Systems has reported on the first quarter of financial year 2009. Сisco reported the lowest rate of proceeds and profit growth for the last three years. In the forthcoming quarters the Company forecasts further decrease. Besides, in the nearest quarters the Company is going to freeze the program of new staff employment.
The net profit of media-corporation News Corp. in the first quarter of 2008-2009 financial year, which finished on September 30th 2008, reduced by 30% to $515 mln in comparison with $732 mln received during the analogous period the year before. The Company’s operating income during the accounting period decreased by 9% - $953 mln against $1.05 bln received during the analogous period the year before.
Morgan Stanley reduced the profit forecast for Goldman Sachs accounting for its decision by the constant uncertainty on the financial markets and bleak economic perspectives. After the Google has decided to refuse an agreement with Yahoo! Inc. as for the partnership on the advertizing market due to some difficulties with the antimonopoly establishments, Yahoo announced about the possibility of considering Microsoft’s offer.

Monday: currency market

Tuesday, November 11th, 2008

The following data were published:

00:30    Australia     Meeting report of Central Bank of Australia
09:30    Great Britain     The index of producers’ costs (entry), year/year   October    13.8%    18.0%    24.5%
09:30    Great Britain     Basic index of producers’ costs (launch price), year/year   October  4.9%     5.1%    5.4%
09:30      Great Britain Basic index of producers’ costs (launch price) October   -0.5%        -0.1%
09:30    Great Britain     Basic index of producers’ costs (launch price), year/year   October  6.8%    7.4%    8.5%
09:30    Great Britain Basic index of producers’ costs (launch price) October   -1.0%    -0.4%    -0.3%
09:30    Great Britain     The index of producers’ costs (entry) October    -5.6%    -2.6%    -1.2%
23:50    Japan    Balance of trade  September     ¥247.1B        -¥236B
23:50    Japan    Current balance   September   ¥970.5B        ¥903.2B
23:50    Japan    Monetary offer M2+CD   October   1.8%        2.2%

The decrease of the USA’s stock indices supported Japanese currency against its main competitors since investors activated the reduction of highly profitable assets which are financed in Japan.

The decrease of indices completely blocked their achievements at the beginning of the session as the analysts have forecast their first quarterly losses for the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and profit reduction of the Google Inc due to the financial crisis.

To fight the financial crisis Chinese government adopted the plan of economy stimulation the volume of inflows equal almost to five-year GDP. This is an answer to the collapse on the major export markets: in Japan, USA and Eurozone there has been observed the fall while Chinese economy is supposed to grow by 8.5 % according to the MWF data. Besides, the MWF forecasts that the decrease in the regions mentioned above will be the hardest since the II World War.

In the spotlight of the investors there is also the decision of the twenty economically developed countries about their readiness to take a number of measures immediately to support the growth of the world economy.

Euro may go on suffering losses against dollar after at the meeting in Sao Paulo the president of the ECB Triche has told that the reduction of inflation would enable central banks to reduce rates to revive economy. “There is a possibility of further reduction of the rates by the ECB due to the pessimistic perspectives for European economical system.” Tsutomu Soma, the currency dealer of the Okasan Securities Co., said. – “Long-term descending tendency of the business activity in the Eurozone will, obviously, preserve.”

EUR/USD has begun the trading session in the area of $1.2775. After that it remained in the terms of $1.2780- $1.2900. Having broken the lower bound in the afternoon, the couple fell to $1.2700 area.

GBP/USD has set the session maximum in $1.5885 area, after which it suddenly fell and set the session maximum in $1.5675 area and in the course of dollar consolidation fell to $1.5570 area.

USD/JPY after resistance testing in Y99.40 area it drastically reduced and being supported to Y97.50 finished the trading session in Y98.00 area.

The main Tuesday’s events will be the release of the present situation esteem by Japanese economic observers (05:00 GMT), the release of the trading balance of Great Britain at 09:30 GMT and the release of November German index of economic expectations by ZEW institution. At the end of the day there is expected the release of the indicator of consumers’ moods in Australia by Westpac (23:30 GMT).

Weekly review of the stock market

Monday, November 10th, 2008

Japanese major indices finished the week by the insignificant growth. According to the weekly results, Nikkei index consolidated 0.1%, weekly growth of the Topix made up 1.4%. It is worth mentioning that at the moment Nikkei has reduced 44% since the beginning of the year. On the last day of the week Japanese stock indices suffered losses: Nikkei went 316.14 points back or 3.6% to 8 583.00, Topix, being a wider index, reduced by 30.30 points or 3.3% to 879.00.
The dynamics of indices was negatively influenced by the reduction of income forecasts by the Japanese companies because of the global economy recession and growth of yen. Their income forecasts reduced Toyota Motor Corp. and Olympus Corp. According to the session results, the stocks of these companies fell 9.2% and 9.3%, respectively. Both of the companies reduced the forecast of the yearly income by 56%.
Yesterday’s fall of oil prices influenced negatively the stocks of the oil companies. The stocks of the Inpex fell 8.9%, the stocks of the Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. lost 10%.
The reduction of prices on the basic materials caused the stocks fall of the trading company Mitsui & Co.  by 8.8%.

Having consolidated on Friday, European major indices managed to compensate a part of their week losses. At the last session of the week there grew the national indices on all the 18 West European markets but for Luxemburg. British FTSE gained 2.2%, German DAX grew 2.6%, French CAC raised by 2.4%. The indices were supported by the growth of the stocks of oil and mining companies, which consolidated due to the growth of prices on oil and gold. The stocks of the BP grew 4.5%, the stocks of the Tullow Oil consolidated by 5.1%, the Shell’s stocks rose by 2.3%. Among the stocks of the mining companies the maximum growth was shown by the largest gamblers - BHP Billiton Ltd +4,8%,  Rio Tinto Group 4.5%. Besides, it is necessary to point out the stocks growth of the European third largest airlines British Airways Plc. by 12% after the company has announced about the growth of the profit forecast. The stocks of the world largest re-insurer Munich Re skyrocketed 6.9%. The company announced about its plans to keep on paying off its stocks and raising the amount of dividends by 10% by 2010.

USA’s major indices finished the week by the reduction by more than 4% showing maximum two-year fall for the last 20 years.
Despite the weak economic data released on Friday, major indices managed to finish the week on a positively since the investors have used the fall of the markets for the last two days to buy relatively cheap stocks.
According to the statistics released, in October the number of working places in the non-agricultural sector reduced by 240К compared with the rate reconsidered in September at the level of -289К and expectations at the level of -200К. Thus, the payrolls factor has been reducing the tenth month running this year. The unemployment level grew up to 6.5%.

Ford Motor (+$0.04) announced about $3 bln operating losses and plans on reduction of expenses and staff in order to support financial situation.
According to the third quarter results, losses of the GM (-$0.44) made up $2.5 bln or $4.45 per stock.
Quarterly financial result of the Qualcomm (+$2.61) turned out better than the forecasts but the expectations for the following quarters are not that optimistic. The quarterly profit of Walt Disney (+$0.55) and Sprint appeared to be worse than the forecasts.
It became known that the Microsoft (+$0.62) was not going to make a suggestion about merging the Yahoo! (-$1.76).
The stocks of the Exxon Mobil (+$4.39) showed the best result during the Friday’s session due to the growth of oil prices which finished the session in the area of $61.0 per barrel.

Tuesday: stock markets

Friday, November 7th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:
Nikkei -272.13 -3.00%  8,809.30
Topix -27.29 3.00%  889.36
FTSE    -157.23    -3.57%    4,246.69
DAX    -263.95    -5.25%    4,761.58
CAC    -169.34  -4.83%  3,336.41
Dow    -176.58    -1.99%    8,693.96
NASDAQ    -35.84    -2.22%    1,580.90
S&P    -20.26    -2.20%    898.95
10yr Note    -0.0500    -0.013%    3.755%
NYMEX Crude Oil    -3.08    -4.94%    59.33
Gold    -13.70    -1.84%    732.80

On Tuesday Japanese major indices went back against the apprehensions that the retardation of the global demand and growth of the national currency will be the cause of the reduction of profit forecasts. The stocks of the watches producers Citizen Holdings Co. and Seiko Holdings Corp. fell by more than 9% after the citizen has reduced the forecast of the yearly profit by 32%. Because of the forecast reduction there also decreased the stocks price of the digital cameras producer Canon and automaker Toyota by 8.4% and 4.9%, respectively. Last week both of the companies reduced their profit forecasts.
According to Shinko Research Institute Co.’s data more than a half out of 922 companies which released their quarterly results data, reduced the profit forecast for the forthcoming quarters.
Against the background of the total reduction there consolidated by 11% the stocks of the farming machines   Iseki & Co., thus expanding yesterday’s growth after the Company has announced about the profit according to the quarterly results against the forecasts of losses expectations.

In the light of reduction of prices on oil and metals as well as the worsening of the perspectives as for the worsening of companies’ profit against the background of the financial crisis European major indices finished Tuesday’s trading session by the first reduction for the last three days. The main national indices fell on all 18 West European markets.
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA’s stocks fell by 17% after the second largest bank of Italy as far as the assets are concerned has announced about reconsidering the dividends due to the 54% profit reduction. According to the Bloomberg’s estimates, average profit reduction of 1 246 companies which released their quarterly financial results since October 7th has made up 11% against the expected 4.5%.
The stocks of the Austrian bank Erste Bank Group AG fell by 9.5% after the Bank has announced about its plans to attract additional capital in the amount of $2.7 bln. The reduction of copper cost on the commodity exchanges caused concern about the reduction of demand on the metals, which in its turn negatively influenced the stocks of the mining companies. The stocks price of BHP and Rio Tinto fell by 9.3% and 8.9%, respectively. The stocks of the companies of the power-generating sector decreased as well: BG Group (-9.4%), Total SA (-5.2%).

Major indices on Wall Street finished Tuesday’s session by a fall. Concerns about global economy retardation, because of which the profit of corporations decreases, overshadowed optimistic announcements about the plans of a number of financial establishments to take measures to prevent foreclosure.
Mortgage companies Fannie Mae (-0.03) and Freddie Mac (-$0.04) with the help of public officers worked out the plan to help mortgage borrowers who are in danger of real estate attachment because of the inability to pay out the credit. This measure will concern hundreds thousands of families.
Analogous measures have been already taken and put into practice by the American leading banks - Citigroup, JPMorgan, Bank of America, etc. The main term will be the reduction of mortgage pay-outs to 38% of the customer’s income. To achieve this, the credit rates will be reduced and their terms prolonged. The measures taken by the Citigroup (-$0.36) include the terms change of crediting for the group out of 500 000 house owners.
The FRS satisfied the application of the American Express (-$1.56) – the world leader on the market of plastic credit cards – to be transformed into a banking holding. The decision, which the FRS explains by extraordinary circumstances, connected with the world economic crisis, will enable American Express to accept deposits and low-per cent federal credits. Before this the Company has announced about its intention to reduce 10% of its staff (about 7.000 working places) due to the crisis which spread from the mortgage market to the market of plastic cards.
Goldman Sachs reduced the profit forecast for the Google (-$7.49) in connection with the negative expectations of the future perspectives.
Auto-makers General Motors (-$0.44) and Ford (-$0.13) went on suffering losses due to the apprehensions of the investors as for the ability of the companies to cope with the financial problems without government’s support.
The consolidation of dollar caused further reduction of oil prices. December futures WTI Nymex fnished the trading session by the decrease by 4.94% to the level of $59.33 per barrel.
Bonds market was closed because of the celebration of the Veterans’ Day.

Wednesday:stock markets

Thursday, November 6th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:

Nikkei    +406.64    +4.46%    9,521.24
Topix +56.21 +6.20% 966.91
FTSE    -108.77    -2.34%    4,530.73
DAX    -111.17    -2.11%    5,166.87
CAC    -72.98    -1.98%    3,618.11
DOW -486.01 -5.05% 9,139.27
NASDAQ -98.48 -5.53% 1,681.64
S&P 500 -52.97 -5.27% 952.78
10yr Note    -0.7100    -0.189%    3.694%
NYMEX Crude Oil    -4.93    -6.99%    65.60
Gold    -14.90    -1.97%    742.40

expectations that Barak Obama elected US President would take additional measures to stimulate economic growth.
The recovery of prices on the raw materials markets supported the stocks of the raw materials companies.
The stocks of the Honda Motor Co. skyrocketed 13% due to the optimism in relation to the fact that the US law-makers might take new measures to support economy.
The stocks of the Japanese largest oil companies Inpex Holdings Inc. and Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. gained more than 12% in the course of the oil prices consolidation at the highest rate for the last 6 weeks.
The stocks of the Mizuho Financial Group Inc. – Japanese second largest bank – skyrocketed 16% after the fall of the credit resources prices has become one more proof of the stabilization of the situation.
Unexpectedly strong quarterly report of the Sumitomo Heavy Industries Ltd. was the reason for the record growth of the company’s stocks for the last 22 years.

European stock indices suffered losses for the first time for the last seven days. The disappointing quarterly results became the main cause of the investors’ pessimism.
The stocks of the ArcelorMittal collapsed 15% after the company’s announcement that the planned volume reduction would be doubled. Besides, the world largest steel producer will pay out $1.6 bn as compensation to its employees in accordance with the 4-year labor contract recently signed by the trade union. The company also reported 29% growth of the profit to $3.9 bn, the sales growing 38% to $35.2 bn. BNP Paribas SA lost 1.5% of its stocks’ cost after the quarterly profit of the French bank turned out to be weaker than it has been expected judging by the forecasts. The stocks of the Scandinavian largest brewing company Carlsberg A/S fell 5.3% after the publication of the careful forecast of the financial results. Carlsberg A/S reduced the forecast of the operating profit according to the current financial year results, remarking the weakening of the demand in Great Britain and Baltic countries as well as the general weakening of the consumers’ activity. The quarterly results of Nokia Oyj and BASF SE fell short of expectations as well. It should be pointed out that according to the Bloomberg’s data, the quarterly profit of 924 West European companies, presenting their reports since October 7th on average reduced 4.9% against of the forecast fall by 3.6%.

Major indices on Wall Street finished the day with serious losses after the release of the weak economic data.
ISM Services index characterizing the situation in the services sector of the American economy reduced in October to 44.4, which turned out to be 2.6 percentage points worse than the forecasts and 5.8 percentage points weaker than September rate - 50.2. The indicator has fallen to the minimum level since 1997 and is bellow 50 level, which testifies to the negative dynamics in the sector on which there falls almost 90% of the American economy. A bit earlier there have been published the data of the ADP Employer Services, according to which last month there were reduced 157.000 working places. This has become the maximum rate for almost 6 years. This fact as well as the fall of the employment component of the ISM index causes sound apprehensions that Friday’s results of the labor market will show the significant reduction of employment. At the moment the experts forecast the reduction of the rate in October by 200.000 and unemployment growth to the five-year maximum of 6.3%. Nevertheless, one should not ignore the possibility of the release of even weaker data. In this connection the stock indices have been under pressure during the whole day, all the ten main economic sectors closed on the negative territory.
AMBAC Inc. reported the growth of quarterly losses to $2.43 bn in comparison with $360.6 mln last year

due to the losses connected with the credit derivatives, assets prices fall secured by the mortgage derivatives.
MBIA Inc., one of the leaders of the securities insurance, announced about the losses according to the quarterly results in the amount of $806.5 mln against $36.6 mln losses the year before. Financial company Gmac Llc reported the growth of quarterly losses to $2.52 bln due to the problems of the mortgage division. Last year GMAC lost $1.6 bln.
Delta Air Lines Inc Del announced about the terms change of bonus programs SkyMiles and WorldPerks in connection with the growth of fuel prices.
By the end of the trading session the indices have renewed session minimums in the course of activization of sales in the influential finance sector. Retail REITs fell 8% after the negative results of the General Growth Properties. Investment banks and brokers’ companies lost 5.1%. Meanwhile, the bond insurers MBIA and Ambac got a crushing blow after the release of extremely weak reports.
Among the components of S&P 500 the stocks of 472 companies suffered losses. The main outsiders became Exxon Mobil and AT&T. Medco Health Solutions and Chesapeake Energy remained the leaders.

Tuesday: currency market

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

The following data were published:
03:30    Australia    The announcement of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision about the rate 5.25%
06:45    Switzerland    Index of the consumers’ prices   October    0.5%
06:45    Switzerland    Index of the consumers’ prices   October    2.6%
10:00    Е15    Index of the producers’ prices September    -0.2%
10:00    Е15   Index of the producers’ prices, year/year   September    7.9%
15:00    USA    Manufacturing orders     September    -2.5%
Dollar has suffered the most serious losses against euro since the introduction of the common currency in 1999, and yen seriously reduced in reference to the main currencies. Rally on the world stock markets combined with the fall of the interest rates on the capital markets reduced the attraction of the American and Japanese currencies as a shelter for capitals and provoked the activization of the profit fixation.
Yesterday dollar one-month interest rate Libor reduced in London to the minimal level for the last four months, which testifies to the unfreezing of the activity on the credit markets.
On the USA’s stock market Standard & Poor’s 500 index has overcome the 1.000 mark since October 14th adding 3.5% since morning. MSCI World Index researching the dynamics of the stock market in 23 developed countries gained today 1.2%, the growth of the index taking place for 6 days running.
According to the British Bankers’ Association the Libor rate which is the main indicator of the credit resources on the interbanking market has been reducing 17 days running and reached today 2.18% - minimal level since November 2004.
Thus, the markets react to the actions of the central banks all over the world which include both radical reductions of the rates and multi-milliard inflows into the financial systems to increase their liquidity and unfreeze the activity on the credit markets.
EUR/USD according to the session results dollar lost 300 points against euro. Having opened Tuesday trading session in $1.2640 area, the pair finished the day at $1.2980.
GBP/USD having set maximums above $1.6110 mark, the pair failed to preserve its achievements and finished the trading in $1.5950 area.
USD/JPY according to the session results yen went back against dollar to Y99.70 level from the opening area of Y99.10.
Today at 08:55 GMT and 09:00 GMT there will be released PMI indices in the services sector of Germany and Eurozone in whole. At 09:30 GMT there will be published a number of data of the industrial production in September in Great Britain as well as PMI index in the services sector. At 10:00 GMT it is worthy of paying attention to the data of the retail sales in Eurozone in September.
In the afternoon at 12:00 GMT there will be released the data of the number of applications for the getting of mortgage credit in the USA on October 31st. At 13:15 GMT there will be released October report of the ADP about the number of new working places in the private sector of the American economy. At 15:00 GMT there will be released September ISM Non-Manufacturing index and traditional data about the oil reserves in the USA are expected at 15:35 GMT.