Archive for September, 2008

Monday: European Stock Market

Tuesday, September 30th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:

Nikkei    -149.55    -1.26%    11,743.61
Topix -20.02 -1.70% 1,127.87
FTSE    -269.70    -5.30%    4,818.77
DAX    -256.42    -4.23%    5,807.08
CAC    -209.90    -5.04%    3,953.48
Dow    -777.68    -6.98%    10,365.45
NASDAQ    -199.61    -9.14%    1,983.73
S&P    -106.72    -8.80%    1,106.55
10yr Note    -1.9500    -0.510%    3.632%
NYMEX Crude Oil    -10.52    -9.84%    96.37
Gold    +5.90    +0.66%    894.40

European stock markets had suffered the most serious losses for the last 8 months and Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index had reached the minimal mark since January 2005 after the information about the adoption of the programs to support financial institutions in Europe.

Insurance giant Fortis announced about its inability to pay liabilities and got a credit from the government of Belgium, Netherlands and Luxemburg in the amount of $16.4 billion. British government nationalized the mortgage crediting company Bradford & Bingley which costs $91 billion. German government supported Hypo Real Estate Holding AG. The stocks of Anglo Irish Bank Corp. Plc, Dexia SA and Deutsche Postbank AG lost more than 20% and Hypo Real Estate Holding AG’s stocks collapsed 74%. Fortis lost 24%. Banco Santander SA – Spanish largest bank - will buy the assets of Bradford & Bingley at 612 million pounds ($1.1 billion). Santander’s stocks reduced 4.2%.

On Monday the major indices in Wall Street closed with the most serious losses after it had become known about the failure in the US Congress of the voting as for the adoption of the plan to support financial markets. During the whole day the indices were under the pressure and renewed long-term indices after it had become known about the failure of voting in the US Congress for Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. In the session minimums the losses of Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 made up 6.3%, 6.7% and 7.2%, correspondingly.
Congress members from the Republican Party during the press-conference announced that they would immediately return to the discussion of the financial plan, both of the political parties blaming each other for the failure of voting.
S&P 500’s losses made up 7.2% - maximum level since “black Monday” of 1987.
Power-generating sector became an absolute outsider which was, evidently, connected with the fall of prices on oil since the beginning of the day up to 10%. It was followed by the financial and technological sectors.
Apple’s stocks fell 17% after Morgan Stanley’s analysts reduced the forecast of Apple’s profit to 35% and reconsidered the company’s stocks rating to Equalweight from Overweight, remarking the retardation of order growth for iPhone and Mac. computers. Apple’s rating was also reduced to Sector Perform from Outperform by the RBC analysts thinking that the company might suffer in case of recession.
Citigroup (C) is going to buy Wachovia (WB) banking business. In accordance with the plan announced by the FDIC Citi would take upon itself the bank’s losses in the amount of $42 billion as for the credit pool in the amount of $312 billion, FDIC taking the debts exceeding the set limit of $42 billion. Wachovia will preserve control over AG Edwards and Evergreen. WB’s stocks had collapsed 89% before the beginning of the regular session.
Among economic news one should point out the growth of personal expenses in August up to 0.5% (instead of the expected +0.2 as well as the absence of income changes (the growth up to 0.2% had been expected). PCE – inflation indicator – did not change either in comparison with the data of the last month. The base value of the index (Excluding energy and food prices, PCE) grew, as it had been expected, 0.2%. Taking into account the weakening of consumer activism a number of analysts reconsidered their predictions as for the growth rate of GDP of the world’s largest economy and thought that in the current quarter it would be closer to 0. The conditions on the credit markets remained rather severe, namely the dollar rate Libor remained at very high levels.
The so-called TED Spread – the yield difference between 3-month rate Libor and 3-month liabilities of the US Treasury (T-bill) – grew up to 3.48% - maximum level since, at least, 1984. This fact proves a sudden activity decrease in the sphere of interbank crediting. In order to compare, the average rate of TED Spread made up 0.4% during the period from 1998 till the end of 2006.
The sales were minimal in the sectors of public health and essential consumer goods, known for their defensive characteristics.

On Monday Japanese stock indices had closed with the losses for the third day running. Record fall of rates for the services of the sea transport companies and the reduction of prices on oil left in the shadow the speculations that the measures to support financial companies would help to restrict the influence of the crisis on the credit markets. Nippon Yusen K.K.’s stocks lost 6.6%, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd.’s stocks fell 6% and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd.’s ones - 6.3%. The sector of sea transport companies reduced to the minimum level for the last 2 years. The stocks of the country’s largest oil-producing company Inpex Holdings Inc. fell 6.1%. Resona Holdings Inc. became one of the leaders of reduction in the financial sector, thus losing 2.3% according to the daily results after the announcement about the nationalization of the Belgian Fortis.

PR (12:47:55 2/10/2008)

Review of the US stock market

Monday, September 29th, 2008

By the closure of the trading session on Friday S&P 500 had reduced their losses to 3.3% in comparison with the beginning of the week, and Dow – up to 2.2% due to the speculations that in the nearest future the Congress would adopt the plan of financial markets support.

The revival of the financial sector supported the major indices. The sector became an absolute leader generally due to the growth of financial diversified companies segment, namely such large representatives as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America.

The growth of the sector was restricted by the sales in the segment of regional banks. National City’s stocks were under the most serious pressure because of the apprehensions that the bank might follow Washington Mutual’s steps.

The authorities took under control Washington Mutual Inc.,
whose losses after the operations on the credit markets made up $19 billion after the customers of the bank had withdrawn $16.7 billion starting from September 15th. On Friday it became known that JPMorgan Chase & Co. had agreed to buy the assets and branches of WaMu at $1.9 billion. WaMu’s stocks which were traded last year at $35 per stock had collapsed $1.53 – to 16 cents. Trading them had been stopped before the opening of NYSE. JPMorgan’s stocks grew $4.42 – up to $47.88 on Friday after the company had managed to draw in $10 billion. Bank of America Corp. gained 6.8%, Wells Fargo’s stocks grew $3.19 up to $37.31.

The cause of the market fall at the beginning of the week was the protracted hearing in the Congress of the program about the solution of the crisis and information about the bankruptcy of American bank Washington Mutual.

On Thursday in the Congress there appeared the opposition to the anti-crisis program on the part of the representatives of the Republican Party and the discussion of the terms got more difficult. The Republican fraction of the Lower chamber prepared their competing plan which presupposes simplification of tax laws and drawing mainly of the private capital than tax-payers’ money to restore the financial system.

During his Friday’s speech US President George Bush expressed confidence that the Congress would overcome all the difficulties and approve of the salvation plan of the US financial system. Nevertheless, the head of the bank committee Richard Shelby declared that he would like to see the markets open on Monday without the adopted plan.

According to the weekly results Nasdaq became an absolute outsider due to the problems in the technological sector. Namely, Research In Motion’s quarterly results did not manage to answer the experts’ expectations. As a result, market capitalization on Friday reduced 25%. This fact influenced the dynamics of the Nasdaq 100 index (-2.3%) which includes the largest representatives of the technological sector.

Friday, September 26th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:

Nikkei 225  -108.50 -0.90% 12,006.53
Topix -14.02, 1.2% 1,153.95
FTSE +101.45 +1.99% 5,197.02
DAX +120.16 +1.99% 6,173.03
CAC +111.94 +2.72% 4226.48
Dow    +196.89    +1.82%    11,022.06
NASDAQ    +30.89    +1.43%    2,186.57
S&P    +23.31    +1.97%    1,209.18
10yr Note    +0.9100    +0.241%    3.862%
NYMEX Crude Oil    +2.29    +2.17%    108.02
Gold    -13.00    -1.45%    882.00

On Thursday Japanese stocks fell because of the retardation of export growth due to the reduction of cars deliveries. Indices reduced the losses after US president George Bush had recommended that the congressmen should adopt salvation measures project for financial system.

Nissan Motor Co. fell 5% involving the stocks of other auto-makers after the data release pointing at the export decrease of cars in the USA due to the influence of financial crisis on the consumers’ expenditure. Re-plus Inc.’s stocks were offered at the minimum possible price, the company became a bankrupt. Shinsei Bank Ltd. grew 3%, thus helping the creditors to reduce the losses. Gauges fell as well since the majority of stocks traded without the right to get dividends. The stocks of Honda Motor Co. – Japanese second largest car-maker- reduced 3.2% to 3300 yen. Takeuchi Manufacturing Co. – producer of cars equipment which exports 90% of its production – fell 5.7% to 1490 yen.

The comments of FRS chairman Bernanke and the reduction of prices on oil and metals caused the reduction of major European indices on Tuesday.

Wednesday, September 24th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:

FTSE    -100.14    -1.91%    5,136.12
DAX    -39.22    -0.64%    6,068.53
CAC    -83.69  -1.98%  4,139.82
Dow    -161.84    -1.47%    10,854.17
NASDAQ    -25.65    -1.18%    2,153.33
S&P    -18.87    -1.56%    1,188.22
10yr Note    +0.1500    +0.039%    3.841%
NYMEX Crude Oil    -2.76    -2.52%    106.61
Gold    -17.80    -1.96%    891.20

The comments of FRS chairman Bernanke and the reduction of prices on oil and metals caused the reduction of major European indices on Tuesday. In his speech in the Senate Bernanke called the current situation on the financial markets “extraordinary”, which became the reason for the sale of banking establishments.

National indices reduced on all the 18 West European markets. The stocks of Barclays Plc. – British third largest bank – fell 4.2%. The stocks of French Societe Generale SA went 3.4% back. Due to the decrease of prices on metals the stocks of the mining company Rio Tinto Group fell 5%. The statistics released also influenced negatively the dynamics of indices. Alongside the sudden growth of manufacturing orders in Eurozone in July the business activity in the production and services sector in EU reduced 45.3 against 47.5 and 48.2 against 48.5, correspondingly. Man Group Plc.’s stocks fell 8.2% after one of the hedge funds reduced the ratings to underperform basing on the worsening of the perspectives of the company’s profit.

On Monday Japanese stock market grew drastically.

Tuesday, September 23rd, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:

Nikkei    +169.73    +1.42%    12,090.59
Topix +19.57  +1.70% 1,168.69
FTSE    -75.04    -1.41%    5,236.26
DAX    -81.78    -1.32%    6,107.75
CAC    -101.36    -2.34%    4,223.51
Dow    -372.75    -3.27%    11,015.69
NASDAQ    -94.92    -4.17%    2,178.98
S&P    -47.99    -3.82%    1,207.09
10yr Note    +0.5500    +0.146%    3.824%
NYMEX Crude Oil    +16.37    +15.66%    120.00
Gold    +44.30    +5.12%    909.00

On Monday Japanese stock market grew drastically after the release of the news about US government’s assistance programme to the financial companies in the amount of $700 billion. The growth of oil prices supported the representatives of the goods and commodities and the primary sectors. The stocks of Resona Holdings Inc. – one of the largest banks of the country – skyrocketed 10% after the news about US Treasury’s intention to buy a whole string of the debt issues in order to unfreeze the situation on the credit markets.

The stocks of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. which had announced about the losses in the amount of $6 billion due to the losses on the mortgage notes market, gained 2.9%.
Nomura Holdings Inc.’s stocks – the largest broker company of the country – grew 9.6% after Dow Jones’s announcement about the company’s purchase of the Asian assets of the bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Honda Motor Co.’s stocks grew 5.1%. The stocks of NGK Insulators Ltd. – the diesel engine filters producer – grew 5.1% after the company had increased the profit forecast.
Nissan Motor Co.s stocks grew 6.4%. Mitsubishi Corp. became the leader in the sector of the firms and goods and commodities sector after the oil prices had reached the two-week maximum. The stocks of Mitsubishi, half of the profit of which is generated by the raw materials sales, grew 6.6%, and the stocks of the largest oil company of the country - Inpex Holdings Inc. skyrocketed 9.7%. On September 19th the price of October oil grew 6.8% up to $104.55 per barrel. Metals, namely lead and copper, went 3% up.

8 Things Every Online Investor Should Know

Monday, September 22nd, 2008

  1. Start small.
    If you are new to online investing, don’t put your entire life savings into an online account. Start with a smaller sum, which will be easier to handle and keep track of. Once you feel confident, you can then decide to add more money to your online account.
  2. Stay diversified.
    Once online, many investors tend to concentrate on stocks, specifically large-cap domestic stocks. While these stocks should make up part of your portfolio, they shouldn’t be ALL of it! Take into account your time horizon and risk tolerance to develop a well-balanced portfolio of stocks, bonds, and cash.
  3. Don’t bail on mutual funds.
    Most investors are in mutual funds for a good reason. They don’t have the expertise to make their own investments calls on individual stocks. They also are too preoccupied by work, family and other concerns to spend every minute watching the market. So keep your mutual funds; it probably is an unwise move for you to cash out your long-term fund holdings so that you can start “playing the market” in individual stocks!
  4. Costs may not always be obvious.
    Even if online brokerage costs are lower than those of full-service brokers, they can still add up, particularly if you do a lot of buying and selling. Online brokerages firms also impose a number of other fees and charges that you should study closely. The federal capital gains tax is also something with which you must reckon. Before you start buying and selling stocks or mutual funds online on a large scale, you should give careful thought to what the tax bite would be as a result of such trading.
  5. Make orders work for you.
    If you are going to do your own investing online, you need to learn how to use the tools available to avoid potentially steep losses and to buy or sell a stock at attractive prices. Here are three “orders” that you should use to your advantage:

    A MARKET order is an instruction to buy or sell a specified amount of a stock (or other security) at the current market price. The advantage of a market order is you are almost always guaranteed your order will be executed - as long as there are willing buyers and sellers. Depending on your firm’s commission structure, a market order may also be less expensive than a limit order.

    A LIMIT order allows you to avoid buying or selling a stock at a price higher or lower than what you specify. A limit order is an order to buy or sell a security at a specific price. A buy limit order can only be executed at the limit price or lower, and a sell limit order can only be executed at the limit price or higher. By contrast, a market order only guarantees you the best available price — not the limit order’s specified price.

    A STOP-LOSS order sets a sell price for a broker. When the price of the stock drops below this level, it automatically is sold. Also: Take the time to learn about “stop orders,” “day orders” and “good-till-cancelled” orders

  6. Mind those market orders.
    Limit orders are often used to guarantee that an investor will not pay over a certain dollar level for a stock. If no limit is placed, the trade is considered to be a market order. Placing a market order means you won’t necessarily get the price you see when you buy or sell online. Here’s how that works: an investor places an order for a fast-moving stock at $10 share price, but the order does not reach the market until the stock’s price is at $15 a share.
  7. Problems are inevitable.
    Trading online is not foolproof. There will be times when you can’t access your account. You could be away from your computer when the market makes a major move. Your Internet connection could be down. The online brokerage firm’s server could crash due to heavy trading, unexpected software glitches or a natural calamity. Know about the firm’s alternative trading options. This could include automated telephone trading or calling a broker.
  8. Information is power.
    If you are going to buy and sell individual stocks online, it is your duty to keep as well informed as possible about what is going on with the company in question. Don’t just settle for the hype about hot stocks! Go to the company’s Web site and download its prospectus. Check out the company’s publicly available filings through the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s
    EDGAR system. Take advantage of free services that allow you to get automatic e-mail messages whenever there is news about your stock.

http://www.investingonline.org/new/onlineinvesting.html

On Thursday the trading session in Wall Street ended by the sudden growth of the major indices.

Friday, September 19th, 2008

On Thursday the trading session in Wall Street ended by the sudden growth of the major indices. Investors were optimistic about the steps taken by the FRS and a number of some other central banks in reference to the increase of the liquidity of finance establishments in order to calm down the markets and not to allow the growth of financial crisis. This week the FRS announced about lending assistance to American International Group in the form of a loan in the amount of $85 billion but did not take any measures to support Lehman Brothers which had initiated the procedure of its bankruptcy. Besides, Bank of America agreed to buy Merrill Lynch for $50 billion. Apart from this, there is information concerning the negotiation about merging of Morgan Stanley and Wachovia as well as the sale of Washington Mutual.

In the middle of the day the stock market suffered some losses, the major indices renewing 52-week minimums. S&P 500 turned out to be 28% below the peak set almost 11 months ago.

Economic news: last week initial jobless claims suddenly grew and the index of the leading indicators remained on the negative territory, making up in August -0.5% against -0.7% in July and +0.1% in June. This fact enables one to speak about the on-going retardation of the economic growth in the USA. On the other hand, the index of the business activity of Philadelphia FRB (Philly Fed index) in September grew to +3.8 from -12.7 in August. Nevertheless, in the afternoon dollar managed to compensate some of the previous losses.

European stock indices suffered serious losses.

Thursday, September 18th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:

Nikkei 225 +140.07 +1.20% 11,749.79
Topix +3.86 +0.40% 1,121.43
FTSE    -113.20    -2.25%    4,912.40
DAX    -104.19    -1.75%    5,860.98
CAC    -87.29    -2.14%    4,000.11
Dow    -448.22    -4.05%    10,610.80
NASDAQ    -109.05    -4.94%    2,098.85
S&P    -57.39    -4.73%    1,156.21

10yr Note    -0.8100    -0.232%    3.410%
NYMEX Crude Oil    +6.01    +6.59%    97.16
Gold    +70.00    +8.97%    850.50

European stock indices suffered serious losses after the release of weak economic data as for the state of real estate market in the USA and maximum since 1999 growth of prices on the credit resources on the interbank market. As a result there grew the apprehensions about the fact that the crisis on the real estate and credit resources markets would provoke the recession of the region’s economy. The stocks of Germany’s largest building company - Hochtief AG – fell 4.6% after US Treasury department had reported the reduction of the quantity of new buildings in August to the 17-year minimum. Fortis and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. had been the sales leaders in the finance sector for three days running due to the price growth of credit resources because of the insufficient liquidity of financial institutions. Anglo American Plc.’s stocks collapsed 9.3%, and Xstrata Plc.’s ones fell 8.2% due to the apprehensions that economic global retardation would cause the reduction of demand for metals and other commodities.

European indices had suffered losses two days running.

Wednesday, September 17th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:

Nikkei 225 -605.04 -5.00% 11,609.72
Topix -59.63 -5.10% 1,117.57
FTSE    -178.60    -3.43%    5,025.60
DAX    -98.99    -1.63%    5,965.17
CAC    -81.57    -1.96%    4,087.40
Dow    +141.51    +1.30%    11,059.02
NASDAQ    +27.99    +1.28%    2,207.90
S&P    +20.90    +1.75%    1,213.60
10yr Note    +0.0800    +0.023%    3.491%
NYMEX Crude Oil    -4.56    -4.76%    91.15
Gold    -6.50    -0.83%    780.50


European indices had suffered losses two days running, Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index falling to the minimum level for 3 years. This was caused by the fall of American International Group Inc.’s credit rating triggering the new stage of crisis on the market of debt issues. The representatives of the financial sector suffered the greatest losses. The stocks of UBS AG which had reported the assets writing-off in the amount of more than $43 billion due to the losses on the credit markets fell 17% after the interbank credit overnight rate had doubled. HBOS Plc’s stocks – British largest mortgage bank – lost 22%, and French Natixis SA - 16%. Active sales were observed in the goods and commodities sector, which was caused by the fall of prices on the raw materials due to the apprehensions about the reduction of demand for them because of the retardation of the economy global growth. Xstrata Plc’s stocks – one of the largest copper producers – fell 7.4 %.

Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

Closing bell of the stock market:

FTSE    -212.50    -3.92%    5,204.20
DAX    -170.73    -2.74%    6,064.16
CAC    -163.69    -3.78%    4,168.97
Dow    -503.99    -4.41%    10,918.00
NASDAQ    -81.36    -3.60%    2,179.91
S&P    -58.04    -4.64%    1,193.66
10yr Note    -2.4700    -0.662%    3.483%
NYMEX Crude Oil    -5.47    -5.41%    95.71
Gold    +22.50    +2.94%    787.00

Wall Street suffered the most serious losses after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. had asked for protection from the creditors’ demands. This fact meant the actual acknowledgement of bankruptcy of the investment bank and US’s largest insurance company American International Group Inc. Failed to provide the plan of capital in-draw in order to avoid the decline of credit ratings.

US’s fourth largest investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc after getting a quarterly loss in the amount of $4 billion announced about the sale of a part of its commercial property assets as one of the measures of stabilizing its financial state.

СNBC reported that FRS had employed Morgan Stanley to negotiate with AIG about financing the insurance company after it became known that Warren Buffet was not interested in AIG.

The perspectives of the USA’s largest saving and credit institution Washington Mutual Inc were reconsidered by the rating agency from stable to negative, which would possibly cause the decline of the company’s stocks rating to the speculative grade during next two years.

The rating raise of Continental Airlines, Delta Air Lines, US Airways, and Northwest Airlines to Buy from Neutral by the UBS analysts positively influenced the given sector of the market.

During the whole session the major indices had been under the pressure but by the end of the day S&P 500 and Dow had renewed session minimums. Weakness was widespread on the market. Nevertheless, despite the fact that financial sector lost 7.2 %, it is 16% higher than the long-term minimum set on July 15th.

The pressure on the goods and commodities sector is worth mentioning. Thus, namely, Topix declined 3.3 %. Among the largest outsiders one can mention petrol (-6.9%), crude oil (-5.9%) and fuel oil (-5.0%). Growth was observed in the segment of nickel (+4.1%), gold (+2.9%) and silver (+2.5%).